用新观点研究预测中国2010--2011年车市发展

为分析研究2011年及近期车市发展趋势,供汽车产销单位经营决策参考,采用“车市波动分析法”,用车市季度主要参数表和年度车市波动图分析车市实际走势。肯定了汽车产销量超美的成绩。指出2010年车市逐季度大幅回落趋势,分析了罕见的“波形异常”问题的影响及原因。对2011年面临形势进行了分析和预测：车市处于扩张后期,中下等市场,2011年后车市仍有可能小幅回升,对“十二五”期间车市发展持审慎乐观态度。     

BRT综合评价体系的关联规则挖掘分析

利用关联规则挖掘技术,对BRT综合评价体系中各评价指标与综合评价结果之间的关系进行量化分析,得到各评价指标的支持度和可信度,并采用Apriori算法找出BRT综合评价体系中满足最小支持度和最小置信度要求的强关联规则;根据各评价指标与综合评价结果之间关联关系所具有的可信度,判断BRT综合评价体系中各评价指标设置的科学性和各指标权值分配的合理性。应用实例表明,关联规则方法对于验证BRT综合评价体系构建是否科学合理具有重要意义。     

Sub‐optimal decision‐making and the transportation problem

A modification to the transportation problem is outlined that aims to improve the quality of predictions of trip matrices, and at the same time, allow some behavioural and economic insights. A framework is suggested within which this modification may be made and a suitable statistic and iterative process are described. A simple example demonstrates the validity of the modification and suggests some areas of difficulty with the approach.     

87000t散货船结构强度直接计算

根据散货船共同结构规范的要求,对87000t散货船进行了直接强度计算的研究。论述了该船的计算过程,以重压载舱为例,按规范计算得到结构尺寸,建立舱段有限元模型,进行直接计算,对计算结果中不满足要求的构件进行修改,最终得到满足规范要求的构件尺寸。     

船上实施听力保护的技术要求及应用

船舶噪声对船员的听力损伤是众所周知的,甚至发生部分船员的永久性听力损失。国际海事组织第91届海安会通过了新的《船上噪声等级规则》,围绕实施噪声规则,分析了听力保护的技术要求和正确选用听力保护器的技术依据,探讨了佩戴听力保护器对语言交流和感受听觉信号造成的影响。强调必须开展听力损伤的风险评估,并对识别听力损伤的特殊风险因素提出了建议。     

灰关联分析在船用制冷系统故障诊断中的应用

灰关联分析方法是一种实用性强、可信度高的设备故障诊断方法,但其存在一定的应用限制。将D-S证据组合规则与灰关联方法相结合,能有效地处理故障征兆与故障类型关系的复杂性与不确定性,且诊断结果可信度较高。通过对某船用制冷系统故障实例计算,证明该方法简单、实用、诊断准确率高。     

Towards a simplified performance-linked value for money model as a reference point for bus contract payments

The burgeoning commitment to contracting the delivery of bus services through competitive tendering or negotiated performance-based contracts has been accompanied by as many contract payments schemes as there are contracts. We are now well placed to design a simplified performance-linked payment (SPLP) model that can be used as a reference point to ensure value for money, given the accumulation of experiences throughout the world which have revealed substantive common elements in contracts. Whether the payment to the operator is framed as a payment per passenger or as a payment per service kilometre, the SPLP identifies efficient subsidy outcomes that are linked to a proxy indicator of net social benefit per dollar of subsidy. We illustrate how the SPLP model can be applied to obtain the gross (subsidy) cost per passenger (or per passenger km) from measures of gross cost efficiency and network effectiveness. This model can then be used as part of a benchmarking activity to identify reference value of money prospects in respect of passengers per $ subsidy outlay by adjusting for influences not under the control of the service provider. A single framework to identify contract payments to operators, and to assess (i.e., benchmark) operator performance on critical KPIs, is provided by internalising critical key performance indicators (KPIs) in the design of the SPLP. The proposed SPLP model is sufficiently general to be independent of the procurement method (competitive tendered or negotiated, for example) and of the treatment of revenue allocation (net or gross based contracts), with the additional advantage of being able to assess value for money for government.     

免维修模块电源工艺技术研究及应用

从生产应用角度,对模块电源工艺技术(电气装配、密封加固)的研究和应用做了详细的阐述。     

国际国外高速铁路技术法规及标准体系分析

通过对国际国外高速铁路技术法规及标准体系的研究,系统分析国际铁路联盟、欧盟、日本、美国、俄罗斯的高速铁路技术法规及标准体系现状,旨在为完善我国高速铁路技术标准体系、促进我国高速铁路标准国际化及实施我国铁路走出去战略提供参考与借鉴。     

基于相关性精简关联规则生成算法

针对传统基于支持度-置信度桩架关联规则挖掘算法生成规则只考虑支持度和置信度的因素、没有考虑规则两者本身内在的关系并因此产生大量无效的规则的情况,提出了一种采用相关性精简关联规则产生的算法,此算法增加了一个度量——相关性来精简关联规则的产生。实验表明该算法在继承传统算法的优点的同时在一定的程度上提高了规则的有效性,降低规则冗余。